Thursday, November 16, 2006

Will the Dems rock the Dollar ?- Buffet and Soros may hope so.

Buffet and Soros have both been betting against the US Dollar - meaning they bet on it to drop - and make money in the billions if it does.

China, as a warning shot across the bows of the Democrats coming into power, not to meddle in the current trade agreements, sold off a tiny bit of the $700 Billion they hold. And temporarily quivered the Dollar value.

More on this in my broader ranging article in the very near future.

Meanwhile, take a look at what these two big boys in the finance world are doing and get a clue of their strategies.

1. Buffett's Latest Portfolio Moves

2. Soros Takes Major Stake in AMD, Chipotle, and Cisco

3. Manufacturing Shows Unexpected Signs of Strength

4. Fed's Poole: Aging Population May Curb Economy

1. Buffett's Latest Portfolio MovesWarren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made some adjustments to its investment portfolio in the third quarter, reducing its stake in some and adding shares in others, according to regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

First, let's look at the cutbacks: Target, Anheuser-Busch, and H&R Block.Berkshire just disclosed its stake in Target at the end of October, buying 5.5 million shares or $268 million worth of the nation's second largest discount retailer in the second quarter.

But just as quickly, Berkshire sold off about 4.75 million shares, bringing its stake in Target to just 745,700 shares.Target announced yesterday a 16 percent jump in third quarter profits to 59 cents per share, beating expectations.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings to come in at 55 cents a share.

Berkshire sold 7.11 million shares in Anheuser-Busch, the world's largest brewer, after making an initial investment of 44.7 million shares or 5.7 percent of the company last year. Berkshire's remaining investment was 36.4 million at the end of September.

Berkshire cut its stake in tax preparer H&R Block, reducing shares to 10.97 million from 11.93 million.

Now, let's look at where the company added to its positions: Lowe's, Nike, and Iron Mountain.Berkshire made a significant increase in its stake in home-improvement retailer Lowe's, boosting the amount of shares from 390,000 to 6.79 million.

Lowe's and Home Depot, Lowe's main competitor, have both cut their earnings outlook in the face of the housing slump. Buffett owns 4.18 million of Home Depot stock, too. Apparently, Buffett thinks now's the time to buy.

The company also hiked its stake in Nike, the world's biggest athletic-shoe maker, from 2.47 million shares to 4 million shares. Berkshire added a million shares of Iron Mountain, the largest seller of records-management services, to its portfolio, raising its stake to 6 million shares.Berkshire Hathaway also gained 10 million shares of Western Union as part of its spinoff from First Data Corp. in September.

2. Soros Takes Major Stake in AMD, Chipotle, and CiscoLike Warren Buffett, billionaire investor George Soros disclosed his savvy investment moves in SEC filings.

Soros's hedge fund added to its equities position by taking major stakes in a few companies.Soros Fund Management LLC increased its equities investments by 38 percent in the third quarter, investing nearly $2.9 billion, according to the filings.

Soros bought a $20 million stake in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and an $11 million position in Chipotle Mexican Grill, which recently spun off from parent company McDonalds.

The fund also added to its position in Cisco Systems, bringing the investment to $30 million worth of shares from $2.4 million worth in the second quarter, a 1,150 percent increase in the stake.

Soros also decided that some energy companies are a bargain right now, while others are not. The Soros fund invested $42 million in Occidental Petroleum and $31 million in Valero Energy.

However, the fund sold $15 million worth of shares in both Massey Energy Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources.

Soros seemingly has mixed feelings about health-care companies too. His fund picked up $12 million worth of shares in health benefits company WellPoint, and sold $22 million worth of the iShares Nasdaq Biotech Index.

Soros also sold his entire $2.5 million stake in Yahoo, in favor of buying a $2 million stake in rival Google.

The hedge fund also invested $18 million in McData Corp's convertible debt.The filings don't include short positions.

3. Manufacturing Shows Unexpected Signs of Strength

Manufacturing activity in New York state rose further in November with the overall index increasing to a reading of 26.66 from an unrevised 22.92 in October, surprising analysts.

The median expectation of 14 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was for a falloff to a reading of 15.50.The Bank said Wednesday in its Empire State Manufacturing Survey that "conditions for New York manufacturers improved at an accelerated pace in November."

The index only began to be compiled in July 2001, but has gained market attention as a precursor of the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index (due to be released at noon EST on Thursday), which is itself seen as a proxy for the Institute for Supply Management's national manufacturing survey.

If the Empire State Survey were calculated on an ISM basis it would have a positive reading of 58.6 (compared with a reading of 56.8 in October).Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., said the Empire State survey supported the view that the slowing of the national economy is not accelerating.

That's important because of recent market fears that the national ISM index will slip below 50 soon, which indicates contraction, Ruskin said in an e-mail note.

The November reading for the Empire State new orders index rose to a reading of 22.38 compared with 11.75 in October, while the shipments index increased to 26.63 from 22.54.

The unfilled orders index moved back into positive territory with a reading of 10.24 compared with a reading of negative 1.51 in October. Inventories, meanwhile, moved further into positive territory with a reading of 3.77, compared to 2.50 in October.

The prices paid index increased to a reading of 34.90 compared with 30.83 in October, while the prices received index decreased to a reading of 16.98 from 17.50 in October, showing that manufacturers are still facing higher costs which they are having trouble passing on in the form of higher prices.

The employment indexes were mixed. The number of employees rose to a reading of 24.50 from 19.39 in October, while the average employee workweek slipped to a reading of 12.64 from 14.44 in October.

The index measuring expectations six months from now increased to a reading of 37.76 from 30.17 in September.© 2006 Associated Press.

4. Fed's Poole: Aging Population May Curb Economy

The aging U.S. workforce and a declining number of people who want to work may hit economic growth and make the U.S. central bank's job harder, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said Tuesday."

If actual employment growth slows, we will have to make the judgment as to whether the slowing is consistent with a slowing of trend labor force growth or is a sign of impending recession," Poole told the Chartered Financial Analysts Society of Philadelphia.

A copy of his speech was made available to the media prior to delivery.Poole, who is a voter on the U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee, said there was a clear consensus that the retirement of the baby boom generation and a decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate would curb the economy's potential for growth.

He also warned there was a wide degree of uncertainty over the scale of the decline, with important implications for the Federal Reserve as it tries to juggle its dual mandate to ensure price stability and sustainable long-term employment."

If employment growth next year remains only modestly below this year's average pace of about 150,000 per month, we will have to make the judgment as to whether this growth is outrunning available labor, which would be the case if we accept the low estimate of trend labor force growth, or whether one of the higher estimates of trend labor force growth is being realized," he said.

The Fed halted a two-year campaign of gradual interest rate hikes in August and has left its key overnight federal funds rate target at 5.25 percent at its two subsequent meetings, while warning that it remains on high alert over inflation.

Lower energy prices have curbed consumer prices since the Fed stopped hiking rates, while the pace of economic expansion slowed sharply in the third quarter.But the level of non-food, non-energy inflation remains a concern for the Fed, while a drop in the unemployment rate in October to 4.4 percent has sparked concern that the U.S. labor market may be already too tight, and that further hiring could spark wage inflation.

Working out what is a "normal" level of job creation, and what could be too hot, is a key task for policy-makers and it is getting much more complicated, Poole said."

With the baby boom generation starting to retire, we'll have to change our view of normal job creation. Not to do so will invite a serious misperception of the state of the labor market," he said. (Reuters).

1 comment:

Papa Ray said...

Great write up.

Just wanted to mention one thing.

Engineering.

The U.S. is in dire need of engineers of all kinds, all trades, not just petroleum.

Right now, in the area I live in, we need at least a hundred engineers of different stripes.

We have been needing those and more over the last two years. We can't find any, unless we hire "consultant engineers" from abroad.

The reasons why there our universities are not turning out more engineers are varied, depending on who you talk to.

But the lack of kids going into science, engineering and associated professions and trades is going to impact us drasticly in the future.

One reason of course, for the dirth of petroleum engineers was the oil bust of the eightys and ninetys.

Engineers were a dime a dozen and had to find other jobs, professions.

Some came back, some didn't.

Good money to be had, for even, just out of college kids.

Papa Ray
West Texas
USA