DISBELIEF /DENIAL 1:
There is no way the Iranians are going to crash the US economy. If they do, they crash the world economy and theirs right along with it.
The one thing the world doesn't understand is that in a depression, the US will still survive.
RESPONSE 1:
As if Iran cares if their economy gets destroyed.
You might, the powerless Iranian populace might, the hugely rich, old timer Mullahs with something to lose might but not Ahmadi-Nejad and Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.
I continue to fail to get across that your logic is not the logic of Ahmadi-Nejad and his Hojatieh Moslem sect. They would rejoice in the world crashing and Iran with it.
You have to climb out of your logical reasoning and assessment of NORMAL human emotions and goals. You are not dealing with anything you have ever encountered so it's almost impossible for you and most Americans and even most people in general to get their minds around this.
Pol Pot, (simplistically) killed a couple of million of his countrymen, who wore glasses, because their poor eyesight was an indicator they had read books or studied. And he did not want anyone with knowledge to be around and perhaps confront or challenge his dictatorship.
He is a sane, logical person compared to the Hojatieh sect and their desire for Armageddon and apocalyptic intentions.
The Hojatieh control President Ahmadi-Nejad and are the power looking to take over the "dying" Ali Khamenei throne and they have nukes. Not new ones from their centrifuges yet, but old ones they have had for years. At least four of which are operational on Islamic Regime missiles.
NUKES are not the threat. Unlinking oil from dollars is.
DENIAL/DISBELIEF 2
a) A crash in the dollar would have more impact outside the US than inside it, because the Chinese economy would be crushed, and Europe would notice a decline in higher end auto exports. But anyway, currency fluctuations: Google Similarly, they will ask the next Democrat president: "are you willing to send the US into depression during your administration? No? We didn't think so."
b) "Wonderful! Goods manufactured in the US will become more marketable."
RESPONSE 2:
I think you are assuming there is or there will be a choice - for the Democrats or any world governments..
The Islamic Iran's Hojatieh aim is not blackmail but eradication and return of the 12th Imam.
All this is so strange to our values and mind sets that we look at it but fail to see it. My effort is to have people truly see what they are seeing. Yes! They would rather see millions - tens of millions - of Moslems dying of hunger and bringing them closer to their spirtual goal of creating enough death and destruction for their 12th Imam to have reason to return and redeem the world.
That is what the Hojatieh is all about and so inconceivable to you and almost everyone else in the world.
They do not believe in countries, separate economies, they believe in an Islamic caliphate that rules the whole world under one Islamic Sharia law as it was 1,300 years ago, according to the word of Allah as written in the Koran and as spoken by the Prophet Mohammad.
NOTHING else counts or has value. Nor can be an impediment to their holy mission. The Hojatieh label anyone who prevents the global oppression and destruction for which they yearn and strive as a heretic! Now do you get it?
2b) Marketable? Not when the rest of the world has NO money either with which to buy even cheap American goods. Or any goods from anywhere. A dollar crash crashes the rest of the world with it though it may take a few years to sink it worldwide and restructure civilization. Barter will eventually become the sole viable channel of commerce of any kind.
You speak as if of familiar "currency fluctuations" - you should perhaps speak of crashes of demolition derbies as economies crash into each other outside the USA they destroy what's left of ours in the process.
The Chinese are the biggest holders of our outstanding debt and we would not be able to service our debt, not even pay the interest on it, so our own economy would crash.
When there is nobody to whom to export our goods, nor because they ceased to manufacture for lack of cashflow, anyone to sell us goods we need, what do you think happens? To our economy?
You describe a chicken or the egg situation but it is more likely, since the value of the dollar is artificially kept high by being the sole currency with which to buy oil, that if it is unlinked from oil, the crash will arise inside the USA and our crash will bring down everyone else. With China clearly at the forefront.
DISBELIEF / DENIAL 3 QUESTION
"While the dollar is falling, another currency is strengthening, right?"
RESPONSE 3
Only for a very brief period till the falling weight of the dollar drags it down in a crash of its own.
A dollar collapse is so heavy no efforts to support it can succeed. Other currencies will shoot up against the dollar but because global economies are so interwoven, also apart from oil, the collapse becomes like a black hole sucking even other currency into it and also virtually every other economy.
Theoretically final survivors are those who grow their own food, weave their own cloth and can somehow need very little medical care. Barter becomes the final arbitor.
Unfortunately, as one of my friends remarked on this, if you hit people with a sledgehammer of truth and reality - as in this case - fear will make them reject you and the facts behind the premise.
DENIAL/DISBELIEF 4 - QUESTION
1) "They would be willing to create a global bloodbath to achieve their aims?"
"They might not be willing to provoke a bloodbath that would result in the eradication of Islam with the US left standing at the end."
2) "I'm assuming at least some rationality in the sense of them wanting to achieve their objective, rather than victory-less suicide" .
RESPONSE 4
1) If the scenario of the currency change comes to pass in full, there will be parts, often numerous smallish enclaves, of America that survive - in my estimate perhaps one third of the population might get by - but in the long run sink to virtual hunter gatherer levels. (Some interwoven industry may remain on a fairly basic level).
Internal territorial squabbles over food supplies, raids against each other would likely bring us back to the time of the pilgrims and the Wild Wild West. With an underlying technological ability to soften some local, group lives but not on a national scale.
We could be too busy killing each other over food or possessions, somewhat per the gang warfare among Crips and Bloods or mindless, senseless intergang rivalry we read about today.
Which, confess, you barely fathom or feel.
The USA would not survive in the terms you envisage, nor would the Islamic countries spread around the world perish the way you portray or infer.
Most of these are at third world level and have a much greater survivability factor as agricultural rather than agro-Industrial profiles, certainly not fully industrial like the Western world.
Like Ahmadi-Nejad and his tea, cheese and daily stew, they will get by comnfortably with their chickens and ducks. Much as they do now. (Just to encapsulate).
They are far more likely to survive in large numbers than the USA and European populations. Even if their countries sink into chaos and robber barons and tribal chieftains exact tolls and rule certain areas like times of old.
RESPONSE - part 2
You mis-state their objectives, which are not rational - nor were so in the past even to revolution founder Ayatollah Khomeini, who banned the Hojatieh sect that now rules Iran through Ahmadi-Nejad and his mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi.
Their prime objective is the return of their Messiah the 12th Imam.
In their minds, to achieve this, they must destroy everything they can - if need be THEMSELVES included - to create enough misery and suffering to get the attention of the 12th Imam and make it worthwile (in their fanatical minds) for him to bother with the world and return to redeem it.
NOTE: His return saves ALL Moslems, so having died is no big deal, and Islam spreads across the planet, so even if the USA were to survive, as you suggest, he would take care of that when he descends and turn everyone into Moslems.
So why would that not be a TOTAL victory in their "unusual" minds?
You describe an objective that has logic and common sense as the basis. They have neither in their mix.
Remember, martyrdom is an honor and a sure path to eternal salvation in paradise. So why worry about being destroyed? Or in context care about destroying their fellow countrymen for the sake of their salvation? Voluntary or involuntary does not enter their minds.
They are on a mission for Allah. What makes you pause to even think they care?
Because Ahmadi-Nejad does not rant and rave while foaming at the mouth on TV? He is not THAT kind of insane. He is the "cold-blooded", determined zealot, type of insane.
This is all so far removed from our culture, except in occasional tiny splinters, mind sets and beliefs that we fail to have a slightest concept of what goes on inside those heads. You almost have to have met them and lived among them. Or among similar ones. Usually small sects in distant parts of the world.
The closest you and most of us can come is to consider cults and our surface knowledge of them. But even then we do so at a distance, as spectators, never able to fathom their deepest thoughts and motivations.
You cannot do so using your Western mind - unless you can perform a wrenching shift from normal human patterns to those of an unfamiliar type of zealot you have never encountered and whom, until August 2005, you had no chance to observe, nor ever even heard about.
Anyone reading this has to shift mental gears when trying to assess what we face. For most of us it is beyond the range of our radar.
DISBELIEF/DENIAL 5
It's all about Iranian desire to reduce the buying power of the US dollar by demanding all buyers pay in Euros dollars. And this is but one small portion of the world's trade.
If all nations that export oil/gas along with OPEC decided to switch to Euro dollars as their means of payment then it would be a different story.
And if countries, as well as the private sector who purchase oil/gas and must use US dollars as their main means of payment for Iranian oil, tell Iran they will not go along with the deal then Iran is in a deep hole.
What I do see is their using it as a carrot/bribe to convince the European nations to not side with the US as far as economical sanctions go.
Will the Russians, Chinese, South and Central Americans, Canada, exporting European nations (oil), Far East, Pacific Rim countries (all who export oil) go along with the Iranian wish to not accept US dollars in oil sales?
Iran can only push this stupidity so far. And surely growing numbers of the core Mullahs in Iran are becoming quite disenchanted with the policy changes of a few. I do believe Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad and his promoters are going to find themselves out on the streets begging in the near future.
Along with his purging of old school Mullahs and other things like his demand to restructure where Iran keeps it's holdings etc., with of course his immediate master's approvals, he must be seen as a threat to the majority of Iranian of influence that do not go along with his mystical visions.
I believe we shall see him get the boot in the near future.
RESPONSE 5
There is such a demand for oil - artificial or otherwise - that removing Iran's production from the market will jeopardize the price and supply. Though I will note that not too long ago Iran had a whole lot of unsold oil - buyers were trying to teach them a lesson - so they had to store in oil tankers at huge cost.
Unfortunately, the West cannot "control" Iran and its forthcoming Oil Exchange (Bourse) it is starting, because China, India and many of the former Soviet states, some with borders to Iran, require the oil and natural gas.
They will be happy to pay in other currrency, even more so to barter and with Iran still the second or third biggest producer, withdrawal of that quantity from the normal market and available only through Iran's new "Bourse" will bypass any efforts to resist a currency change.
Specially as initially, till everything hits the fan, oil prducing countries that follow suit will make more money for their oil by selling in Euros. So they will not cooperate willingly with the West and Venezuela, possibly Nigeria and even Russia may add weight to the currency change.
Ex-KGB Putin would not mind making more money at the pleasant cost of seeing the USA go under.
Russia is one those economies that could survive since it has little trade with the USA, imports/exports comparatively little even from Europe, and can manufacture most of its needs (quality aside) from domestic capabilites and mining. For Russia, the dollar crash could be the rise of the Russian Empire.
Also the Russian populace still has an ingrained submissiveness of the Communist era and much lower living standards,so might not rise up as would most European or Western countries against their governments. Futile though these actions might be since no government strongly involved in the global marketplace will have the resources to avoid or repair the crash of the dollar.
DENIAL/DISBELIEF 6
I believe Iran at best is rated fourth largest exporter of crude oil.
As for your comments on the Russians. No problem whatsoever. (??)
One thing we have to consider is not all the OPEC countries will like what Iran is up to. The Saudis, and the other countries on the Arabian peninsula as well as Canada are not going to screw the US. Same goes for the African countries.
Will Malaysia, Indonesia, and others in the Pacific go along with Iran.Iran is one of some fifty plus countries that drill and export crud oil. And this will not be the first time the US dollar fluctuates.
It has many times before and recovered. Our Economy is not dependent on Iranian crude, nor what the Iranians do with their money. They are a little fish in the world economy. I do not see how Iran is going to break the back of the US econonmy.
We continue exporting huge amounts of raw materials and finished goods world wide, as well as using things we grow, build and design, manufacture internally.
Iran if anything is a very fragile country. They have little to offer other then their oil/gas, rugs, specialty fruit/nuts.We can break them long before they can break us.
However. If, all the countries you mention as well as a number more were to go along with their demand, then yes, we will see the dollar drop. I have no problem with that. But again. This has happened many times before within other senarios. And the US economy did not cave in, only weaken to yet again gain strength.
Too many variables are not being considered in this equation. Iran is but one element in how US dollars are used around the world.
RESPONSE 6
Once again it is NOT oil but currency that can/will sink us.
This shift will crash the dollar and in very a short time crash every other currency in the world. So who will buy our goods - as you state?
Every Arab country, on the Peninsula or not, even with the best intentions, cannot oppose a nuclear Iran. The risk of being attacked, even with conventional weapons by an almost one million man military and paramilitary force available to Iran, with enough fairly decent equipment and armor, gives all the Persian Gulf countries pause, let alone if they suddenly have a nuclear aggressor.
Yes, the Asian countries, generally Moslem or with huge Moslem sectors in their populations will definitely back Iran's position - not the USA - specially if we back down in Iraq and the region as per the Baker proposals.
You are confusing a dollar "fluctuation" with a total and irreversible dollar crash. A probable drop in the region of 40% (according to far more knowledgeable economists than I could ever be) in a matter of weeks or at best months. That size of "fluctuation" is like a nose dive of an aircraft from which it cannot pull out.
Again, you miss the point. This has nothing to do with Iran's participation in our economy, nor even within the world at large. It is what the little fish can do to the dollar - and it only takes a little fish to ruin it - which will do the damage as described.
You mention "We continue exporting huge amounts of raw materials and finished goods world wide, as well as using things we grow, build and design, manufacture internally."
Some of the "Internal" part will help one third of our nation survive. Forget the export part. NO other country will have money to buy our exports or import anything from anywhere - not too long after a dollar crash. And the consequent crash of their own money.
It does not take all or many other countries for this to occur. Do read the "Oil Story Revisited" on http://www.antimullah.com/ and click on the Archive Details link in the left hand column to find the Permalink. More details are given there, so I do not wish to reinvent the wheel.
And no, this has NEVER happened before, so that's a false element in your view of things and Iran does not have to be anything more than the little fish it is - as you describe it - to wreak the havoc described.
Somewhat like the tiny, invisibly transparent box jellyfish, less than a half inch across, found in Australia, whose tiny tentacle venom can kill a human quite easily. Or cause excrutiating pain for quite a long period of time if it fails to terminate you.
That's Iran's role in this scenario. It's all it takes.
FINAL COMMENT
Oh, please! For as long as the world has been in existence, there have been worry worts who could not seem to go a day without predicting some sort of inevitable doom. Of course, if you are consistent and predict gloom and doom constantly, then eventually you may be partially right.
When I hear all this, it sounds so familiar to the same crud I have heard all my life. First thing I remember was the fear of a nuclear war with Russia. Then it moved into deficits and debt. Then terrorism. Now it is currency. It is always going to be something. And eventually, sure, something at some time will cause some economic catastrophe.
You say there are experts much smarter than you that agree with you. But I contend that there are plenty of experts much smarter than you that disagree. No one can predict the future.
Anyone who tells you different is selling something.
FINAL RESPONSE:
Are you telling me that the Soviets were never a threat to the USA or Europe? Their nukes were not poised at us? Ever?
These threats failed to happen because some people changed the path sufficiently to dodge the bullet. Like Reagan and the Soviets. (And the Soviets at their and Carter's worst were logical compared to today's Islamic Iran, so don't equate the threats).
The Soviets may falsely appear to have had greater destructive power because of their huge nuclear capability. The currency threat was not even on the horizon until the suicidal Islamic groups, in the form of suicidal countries like Islamic Iran, instead of individual suicide bombers, came into power.
Hamas and Hezbollah verge on this "me too, martyrdom" scene.
Had Carter won a second term, the deficits you mention with disdain would have happened the way the "gloomers" stated. Luckily someone else won. Happened to be Reagan, who also deflected the nukes events from the Soviets.
You and I have had the good fortune, sporadically, to have had some people in power who took action against these "doom and gloom scenarios" and made them go away or alleviated them.
Kennedy and Cuban missiles for instance. Or was that, too, just crying wolf? It wasn't and would have had dire consequences.
Does this mean the doom and gloom, like the warning I am shouting out as loudly as I can, is and was invalid?
It needs action to remove it. I believe it is past the point of deflection to get our from under.
What's horrific now is that we have the most insane finger on the "destroy the world" button since Hitler, facing not Reagan but the most absolutely anti-American, appeasist group of Democrats ever, like Pelosi, Leahy etc., who will self-destruct the USA to get Bush.
Like burning down your barn to get the rats. (Pun in there somewhere?)
You, like so many of us, have lived through good and bad times, where the bad has been "softened" to where it has been bearable. Only just making it in the 1930's.
So you argue optimistically, based on good luck and some power plays by men like Bush - like going into Iraq and preventing oil disconnecting from the dollar to some other form of payment. Doesn't matter what that is as long as it is no longer the Dollar.
For the first time in my fairly long life, given the prevailing factors, I no longer believe we can achieve this with the givens we face.
Which we have NEVER had to face before. And around which we totally fail to wrap our minds.
Your optimism is laudable and a brave positive aspect of America but there is a time and place where whistling in the dark no longer suffices and we are not walking past a cemetary but past a bunch of lunatic assassins ready, willing and sadly now able to pounce and slit our throats.
Right now the only viable pragmatic option, horrible as it may appear to be, is to do what is outlined in "Iran, Final Justified Solution" on http://noiri.blogspot.com/2006/08/iran-justified-final-solution.html
But first we have to realize the extent of what we face - with only Hitler as a "prior" and long since forgotten indicator. And dig deep to find the resolve to do what needs to be done.
The world is currently in a similar state to a patient with fairly advanced cancer, which the doctors either failed to spot or for which they have avoided performing badly needed surgery.
They have interminable second, third and thousandth opinions (UN Resolution Drafts) to avoid doing what MUST be done.
The result? Eventually send the patient home to die as the cancer will no longer be operable or thepatient dies due to their indecision and neglect. You and I and every other American - and millions of other nationals around the world - are the patient.
END COMMENT : Gloom is real. Doom is real. Both have been in abundance and history's landscape is littered with occurences. Nukes are real. Terrorism is real. Deficits are real. Debt is real. Currency is real. Threats are real. However, I do not agree with you that current monetary trends portend a terrible fate for our civilization.
Alan replies: That's your American privilege and a respected if perhaps daffy one. :-))
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