OVERVIEW OF WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN WHEN KHAMENEI DIES - ANY DAY NOW?

© By Alan Peters

As I posted the other day, one credible source passed on the deathbed news and another very good one came back later last night saying he was pretending and was not on his death bed - yet.

That he has sequestered himself, or been sequestered with a “no visitors” ruling by his medics is not in question.

What’s very interesting is that this appears like a replay of the Ayatollah Rouhallah Khomeini's (not Khamenei) final days, during which a forged edict brought Khamenei to power.

He and his group may be planning a similar “death bed” “appointment” of someone specific (not yet clear in my mind) though he would love to get his mid-level cleric, middle son Mojtaba into the position by his final decree.

The main difference is that Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic regime in Iran, had almost mystical power to “order” and appoint his successor. Khamenei has less than 10% (ten) of that influence or standing among the Ayatollahs and would be ignored. Except if it were a payback decree naming Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, who was one of the two (minimum required) who provided the only two legitimizing votes for Khamenei and who could have the support of the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) via “prez” Ahmadi-Nejad, his accolyte.

There are so many new players and factors coming to the fore (most were there before but mostly rather covert) that predicting, even speculating is quite hard.

General details:

1. Khamenei was never a real Grand Ayatollah and always an usurper.

2. Ayat. Mesbah-Yazdi (looney 12th Imamer and Ahmadi-Nejad’s spiritual mentor) and former Justice Minister Ayat. Shahroodi gave him technical votes (to complete the formality of becoming a Grand Ayat.) after he and Khomeini’s son Ahmad (almost immediately murdered by the usurper) colluded to forge an edict from the comatose (probably already dead Khomeini) to remove respected Ayat. Montazeri as his chosen successor.

3. Ahmadi-Nejad and the usurper’s middle son Mojtaba Khamenei colluded here to grab power and put Mojtaba on track for a fraudulent (as per his dad) circumvention of the need to be a Grand Ayat., position of Supreme Ruler as inheritor of his dad’s power.

4. Toward this end, Mojtaba imported the worst of the worst murderers and criminals from Hamas and Palestinian jails to use as his mercenary hitmen against the protesters. Some 15,000 of them after an initial 5,000.

5. Ahmadi-Nejad and his IRGC (Revolutionary Guard) colleagues he put into position immediately after his first “selection” in 2005 have consolidated this power and recently it has been Old Porky (obese 2-star General, Commander of the Rev. Guards - Firoozabadi) who has been calling the shots behind the scenes. Fronted by prez A-N and middle son Mojtaba.

6. So far so good. And still conventional within the clerical rivalries.

7. The anti election protests added some secular players and brought cracks in the IRI clerics up front.

8. The Porky (kheekee) as he is called in Farsi, Commander is currently taking over control of the Mojtaba Bassiji mercenaries to expand the IRGC power base. Mojtaba thinks this is all part of the plan. Not that he can NORMALLY take on the IRGC (rev guards) and alienate prez A-N.
Except that his Supreme Ruler father has fallen out with prez A-N for his handling of the fraudulent elections and allowing the fraud to surface.!!!

9. Now for the flies in the ointment:

a) The election rivalries gave birth to long suppressed hate for the clerics and the Islamic Regime among the people - 60% of the populace under the age of 30-years.

b) Obama’s support for the Islamic Regime and not the people has prevented a greater outpouring of dissent, though they are puzzled by his apparent renewed support for Khamenei and throwing A-N under the bus.

c) The clerics have suddenly found theselves fighting for survival, not simply a new power structure.

d) They have beset the populace with every possible desecration of their minds, bodies, souls and loss of life - BUT have only succeeded in lowering the flames of opposition, not putting them out. Complicating the ability of the clerics to operate as desired. (Or really holding talks with Oba-Hussein).

e) The big and small satans, America and Israel, no longer inspire crowds to chant death to them. Instead demonstrators shout death to Russia and China instead when urged by rabble rousers to call for the deaths of former bugbears.

f) Unheard of disrespect for Khamenei and the ruling clergy emerges with shouts of death to the Supreme Ruler and death to dictators.

 5. The newst power block consists of FIVE Iraqi born brothers, the Larijani brood (also reportedly converts from Judaism to Islam).

One is already speaker of the Parliament.

Another (still a minor cleric) has just been appointed Head of the Judiciary.

A third is a fairly heavy hitting deputy Minister .

It’s been a long long Columbus day and I do not clearly remember the other two, other than one or both of them are in policy making levels of the Regime with one in intel.

This family does NOT like prez A-N and are likely to disembowel his power grab efforts with Mojtaba Khamenei.

Slight complications here as the Larijanis are relatives of the Supreme Ruler usurper. The brothers do not specially like two other major players, Rafsanjani and Khatami but would appear to be closer to them than to Khamenei.

NOTE: Rafsanjani is a world level MULTIBILLIONAIRE and funded the anti A-N demonstrations for the so-called Greens.

The Larijanis will possibly think of him as their source of funds till they can get their hands on national budgets.

AND FINALLY - the Russians and the Chinese presence, influence and existing multi-billion contracts they have in hand with the Islamic Regime and could lose.

Specially as the latest rumor coming out of Iran is that they have offered out nearly 1.5 trillion dollar contracts just last week as incentives for support from these countries and the West.

With all that and MORE cooking, your guess is as good as mine as to which way the cookie is or will be crumbling. Too many unknowns.

Like President Jimmuh Carter's intelligence groups that wrote up 30 "for sure" alternative scenarios of what would happen if he replaced the late Shah with Khomeini. And they were all wrong.

As a lay preacher himself he believed he could read the mind of a holy man like Khomeini. Oba-Hussein, our American Khomeini is too involved with himself and his philosophical global desires to be an homest broker of what needs to be done to merit the "peace" prize he was awarded.

Now for the LATEST feedback from IRAN which came up as THIS was being written last night. Khamenei is pretending to be this sick!

Both sources are good so this conflict of information also needs to wait for a more decisive outcome.

Perhaps a welcome funeral would do it.