Friday, December 18, 2009


This may appear to be a minor event but not if you consider the timing and motive.

1. Following a declaration from Prince Reza Pahlavi, former Shah’s son, to Iran’s military to cease and desist from participating in the suppression of the student demonstrations, a positive result came from several units of the formal military (as opposed to the much better financed and equipped para-military Revolutionary Guard) who stated that if the Mullah regime did not stop harming the students they would have to face these units in opposition in the streets.

2. The reaction of the regime was to announce a national Red Alert (used when attacked by foreign invasion forces) and to recall all soldiers to their barracks immediately.

Once the regular army returned to barracks, heavily armed para-military Revolutionary Guard Forces forces surrounded those locations and forbade them to leave, in case they joined up with dissident protesters.

3. The dissidents have shown their ultimate disrespect of  the regime by not only publicly burning large photos of Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei but also photos of bloodthirsty regime founder Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, the “saint of saints”(?). And publicly tearing up posters of Khomeini in the streets.

Regime supporters then took the streets pretending to be dissidents and tore up posters of Khomeini to enrage those parts of the populace which still support President Ahmadi-Nejad and the Islamic regime.

They openly exhorted the bazaar to close down in protest to this insult of the regime's founder. To their shock, the bazaar refused to comply and stayed open thus in turn adding to the insult and showing support for the dissidents.

4. Unable to overcome the tenacious resistance of the demostrators, the regime wants to start a war. Their intent is to poke a finger in Iraqi and American eyes and force a beligerent reaction.

Then on a war footing they can announce martial law, a curfew to forbid anyone being in the streets except a couple of hours a day and give “plausible” orders to the suppression forces to shoot to kill because of an “at war” status.

So far reaction from Iraq and America has been “ho-hum”. And official American sources pretend not to know anything of the events.

The oil wells are in Faakeh, part of Iranian Ilam (Eelam) province, and is a long time Iranian territory but was over-run by the Iraqi armed forces during the eight year Iran-Iraq war.

What has now become a border dispute finds a source in the post-war agreement to resolve the dispute peacefully and that the oil revenue from the wells would be shared between the two countries till a border resolution came about - but Iraq had allegedly failed to pay Iran its share.

Sporadic armed forays by Islamic Iran on a small basis have taken place fairly often but this last one appears to be an incitement to trigger a major conflict.

America used to have an extensive listening post in this Faakeh area during the time of late Shah monitoring the region all the way to Israel.

What comes to mind is this could be used as a perfect excuse to deploy an attack on Iran by the West. Or even Israel, which is increasingly under pressure from surrounding nations where Lebanon has agreed to allow Hezbollah to possess military arms and weaponry.

Where Obama has an American general Keith Dayton and military specialists training Palestinian Special Forces to fight Israel.

Once trained by the U.S, the return of Fatah to terrorist activity against could place Israel on a collision course with Fatah’s American military advisers.

This could create a nightmare scenario of American military personnel caught in the crossfire between Israeli troops and Fatah terrorists.

The American consulate in Jerusalem has so far not commented on the fact that Fatah security forces, known as the al-Aqsa Brigades, are defined by American law as a terrorist entity and possibly are being inadvertently aided by the U.S. military.

Where Syria has signed a war pact with Lebanon and thus Hezbollah and supplies arms to them to use against Israel.

This might be an ineffective spark or a dangerous one in a powder keg. We can only wait and see what reaction to this attack actually occurs.

No comments: