Monday, April 17, 2006

REVISED - Think Iran - Think HOJATIEH!

NEW CONTENT ADDED about half way down

General consideration needed when you think about Iran = Hojatieh!

Mesbah Yazdi "Hojatieh" headed by looney Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, wants the quick return of the 12th Imam, a boy who disappeared down a well in the 1300s and is a direct descendant of the Prophet Mohammad.

Ahamdi-Nejad is a desciple of Mesbah Yazdi and a true believer of the Hojatieh.

The Hojatieh creed, which was too crazy even for Khomeini, who created the Islamic regime in Iran, says the 12th Imam will return to bring salvation to mankind (similar to the second coming of Christ concept) BUT ....

In order for him to return for this purpose there has to be sufficient death, misery, oppression, pain and suffering in the world to make it worth his while (so to speak).

THUS.... to encourage a speedy return of the 12th Imam, the Hojatieh (presently the dominant Islamic creed in Iran with Mesbah Yazdi the power behind the throne and likely to become the Supreme Ruler in the very near future) insists that their duty is to create enough death, misery, oppression, pain and suffering to entice the 12th Imam to return.

AND.... Anyone who acts to prevent all this suffering etc., is against Islam (as per Hojatieh) and as an apostate should be killed.

SO.... fear of mutual self-destruction - as was the case with the Soviets and to some extent with the Chinese - is exactly the opposite of what the Hojatieh want, fear or believe.

They would love mutual self-destruction to occur so that they create enough reason for their 12th Imam to return to the world and bring Islamic salvation.

Whenever you think of Iran think of this and understand that anything and everything you have held dear and reasonable about them NO LONGER HOLDS TRUE.

Pol Pot of Cambodia, who murdered millions of his own countrymen, some for simply having weak eyesight and wearing glasses (inference of being educated) was a Boy Scout and really sane compared to what we have at the helm in Iran.

And we quibble whether we should perhaps not bomb Iran and allow this bunch of lunatics to have nuclear weapons to implement their Hojatieh philosophies on the rest of the world.

The only real question is which "innocents" to save. The Iranian population of some 70 million (though only a few hundred thousand would actually perish) or HUNDREDS of millions around the globe when Iran unleashes nuclear weaponry AND THEIR OIL WEAPON - in the near future and triggers something even Hitler could not dream of or even wish to achieve.

Here is Amir Taheri's take on the same subject:

Last Monday, just before he announced that Iran had gatecrashed "the nuclear club", President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad disappeared for several hours. He was having a khalvat (tête-à-tête) with the Hidden Imam, the 12th and last of the imams of Shiism who went into "grand occultation" in 941.

According to Shia lore, the Imam is a messianic figure who, although in hiding, remains the true Sovereign of the World. In every generation, the Imam chooses 36 men, (and, for obvious reasons, no women) naming them the owtad or "nails", whose presence, hammered into mankind's existence, prevents the universe from "falling off".

Although the "nails" are not known to common mortals, it is, at times, possible to identify one thanks to his deeds. It is on that basis that some of Ahmad-inejad's more passionate admirers insist that he is a "nail", a claim he has not discouraged.

For example, he has claimed that last September, as he addressed the United Nations' General Assembly in New York, the "Hidden Imam drenched the place in a sweet light".

Last year, it was after another khalvat that Ahmadinejad announced his intention to stand for president. Now, he boasts that the Imam gave him the presidency for a single task: provoking a "clash of civilisations" in which the Muslim world, led by Iran, takes on the "infidel" West, led by the United States, and defeats it in a slow but prolonged contest that, in military jargon, sounds like a low intensity, asymmetrical war.

In Ahmadinejad's analysis, the rising Islamic "superpower" has decisive advantages over the infidel. Islam has four times as many young men of fighting age as the West, with its ageing populations. Hundreds of millions of Muslim "ghazis" (holy raiders) are keen to become martyrs while the infidel youths, loving life and fearing death, hate to fight. Islam also has four-fifths of the world's oil reserves, and so controls the lifeblood of the infidel. More importantly, the US, the only infidel power still capable of fighting, is hated by most other nations.

According to this analysis, spelled out in commentaries by Ahmadinejad's strategic guru, Hassan Abassi, known as the "Dr Kissinger of Islam", President George W Bush is an aberration, an exception to a rule under which all American presidents since Truman, when faced with serious setbacks abroad, have "run away". Iran's current strategy, therefore, is to wait Bush out. And that, by "divine coincidence", corresponds to the time Iran needs to develop its nuclear arsenal, thus matching the only advantage that the infidel enjoys.

Moments after Ahmadinejad announced "the atomic miracle", the head of the Iranian nuclear project, Ghulamreza Aghazadeh, unveiled plans for manufacturing 54,000 centrifuges, to enrich enough uranium for hundreds of nuclear warheads. "We are going into mass production," he boasted.

The Iranian plan is simple: playing the diplomatic game for another two years until Bush becomes a "lame-duck", unable to take military action against the mullahs, while continuing to develop nuclear weapons.

Thus do not be surprised if, by the end of the 12 days still left of the United Nations' Security Council "deadline", Ahmadinejad announces a "temporary suspension" of uranium enrichment as a "confidence building measure". Also, don't be surprised if some time in June he agrees to ask the Majlis (the Islamic parliament) to consider signing the additional protocols of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Such manoeuvres would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director, Muhammad El-Baradei, and Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, to congratulate Iran for its "positive gestures" and denounce talk of sanctions, let alone military action. The confidence building measures would never amount to anything, but their announcement would be enough to prevent the G8 summit, hosted by Russia in July, from moving against Iran.

While waiting Bush out, the Islamic Republic is intent on doing all it can to consolidate its gains in the region. Regime changes in Kabul and Baghdad have altered the status quo in the Middle East. While Bush is determined to create a Middle East that is democratic and pro-Western, Ahmadinejad is equally determined that the region should remain Islamic but pro-Iranian. Iran is now the strongest presence in Afghanistan and Iraq, after the US. It has turned Syria and Lebanon into its outer defences, which means that, for the first time since the 7th century, Iran is militarily present on the coast of the Mediterranean. In a massive political jamboree in Teheran last week, Ahmadinejad also assumed control of the "Jerusalem Cause", which includes annihilating Israel "in one storm", while launching a take-over bid for the cash-starved Hamas government in the West Bank and Gaza.

Ahmadinejad has also reactivated Iran's network of Shia organisations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Yemen, while resuming contact with Sunni fundamentalist groups in Turkey, Egypt, Algeria and Morocco. From childhood, Shia boys are told to cultivate two qualities. The first is entezar, the capacity patiently to wait for the Imam to return. The second is taajil, the actions needed to hasten the return. For the Imam's return will coincide with an apocalyptic battle between the forces of evil and righteousness, with evil ultimately routed. If the infidel loses its nuclear advantage, it could be worn down in a long, low-intensity war at the end of which surrender to Islam would appear the least bad of options. And that could be a signal for the Imam to reappear.

At the same time, not to forget the task of hastening the Mahdi's second coming, Ahamdinejad will pursue his provocations. On Monday, he was as candid as ever: "To those who are angry with us, we have one thing to say: be angry until you die of anger!"

His adviser, Hassan Abassi, is rather more eloquent. "The Americans are impatient," he says, "at the first sight of a setback, they run away. We, however, know how to be patient. We have been weaving carpets for thousands of years."

• Amir Taheri is a former Executive Editor of Kayhan, Iran's largest daily newspaper, but now lives in Europe

Sunday, April 09, 2006


Iran has recently been announcing that it will show the world something incredible. So far we have seen some missiles, miniature flying boats and missile torpedoes. It is more than possible and more likely the subject of their "incredible surprise" that Iran could reach proof of concept test stage for its military nuclear program within the time frame forecast; ie: by March or April, 2006. However, how such a test is undertaken will tell, in reality, the level of credibility of the clerics’ nuclear threat. If the test were an actual underground explosion, for example, it would highlight the reality that the clerics are attempting to make a statement to domestic and general audiences around the world, not to prove, scientifically, the capability. Such proof can also be achieved without detonation, by demonstrating the viability of the triggers, and using computer simulation from that point onwards. However, this avenue lacks psychological impact at a political level. It is possible, if a live weapon were used, that this could be one of the eight or more warheads now in the hands of the Pasdaran Air Force. At least three were acquired from Kazakhstan in December 1991. By the end of 1991, Iran had all (or virtually all) the components needed to make three operational nuclear weapons: aerial bombs and/or surface-to-surface missile (SSM) warheads. Highly-reliable sources had long ago stated that the weapons were assembled from parts bought in the ex-Soviet Muslim republics. These weapons became operational as early as February to April 1992. Tehran said it is committed to "providing Syria with a nuclear umbrella before June 1992". The weapons obtained from Kazakhstan were two nuclear warheads and one aerial nuclear bomb. As well, in April 1992-1993, Iran purchased FOUR more warheads for SCUD-type SSMs which were upgraded in the DPRK. Since that time, Iran acquired a reported four nuclear weapons from Ukraine, and additional warheads from the DPRK (North Korea). There is also evidence that Iran may have acquired up to six warheads from Ukraine, delivered via Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is understood that the indigenous production focuses around designs which are essentially the same, or similar to, those of Pakistan. An actual detonation of an Iranian weapon would disclose to sensors much about the type of weapon and the origins of the fissionable materials used in its construction. Having said that, there are very real questions as to the numbers of nuclear weapons which Iran could build domestically in the near-term. To overcome this, Iran has already embarked on a strategy of saturation of Israeli (and other) regional defenses. Including by using Hamas and Hezbollah capability in the region to divert Israel on the ground with local attacks. It is clear that the major build-up of tactical and theater-strategic ballistic missiles in Hezbollah and Syrian positions is designed to cause Israel to expend its three batteries of Arrow 2 ABM and Patriot PAC-III missiles against an overwhelming array of targets, most of which would be non-nuclear and non-strategic, thus enabling Iran to undertake a second-strike, or follow-on launch, of Shahab-3s with nuclear weapons against a "theoretically" then-defenseless Israel. Equally, Israel is aware of this and has undertaken steps to determine target priorities and to adopt a launch-through-confirmed-warning counter-attack. Assuming that an April 2006 date, (apparently moved to May or June) for a supposed surgical US strike against Iranian facilities is believed in Tehran, then clearly the clerics would consider making a move just before that date line. But all of the time frames are extremely speculative. It also cannot be assumed that all the Iranian deliveries of nuclear weapons would be via ballistic missiles, such as the Shahab-3. One special danger would be an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) fired by Iran over the USA from a retrofited cargo ship, chartered or leased under false identity and hard to find and to counteract. Even an old rust bucket would do the job. In fact this kind of disguise would serve well. Ukraine already admitted that it had “lost” 18 supersonic, long-range (3,000km) nuclear-capable X-55/KH-55 Granat [NATO codename AS-15 Kent cruise missiles, without their warheads and that 12 had gone to Iran and six to the PRC. On January 28, 2005, Ukranian parliamentarian Hryhoriy Omelchenko on January 28, 2005, released an open letter to Pres. Viktor Yushchenko stating that Ukraine had illegally sold the cruise missiles to Iran in 2001. The Iranian Government later said that it had “no documentation” on the deal. The four to six warheads purchased by Iran in 2001 were for the Kh-55, a missiles which was optimized for attacks on US Navy carriers. Meanwhile, as well, the PRC has already transferred to Iran Russian-origin nuclear and strategic technologies without Moscow's permission. Significantly, the threat is not just from the Shahab SSMs and X-55s, but also from the myriad shorter-range SCUD-type SSMs and anti-ship cruise missiles. Cruise missiles in fixed batteries (mainly near the Straits of Hormuz) are concealed underground. The next key date in the Iran saga will possibly be the meeting of the Council of Guardians to review the status of Supreme Ruler Ali Khamenei, set for late April and organize a new election for the position - also reportedly postponed to May or June. Ailing from terminal cancer with perhaps as little as six months to live, the Supreme Ruler faces a challenge from his former supporter and now declared antagonist, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, whose 12th Imam apocalypse and Armageddon mind sets were too weird even for Khomeini, who forced the cleric and his Hojatieh movement into a clandestine, underground profile. As the spiritual mentor for President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, Mesbah Yazdi has emerged as the power behind the throne and counts on the support of the Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran) commanders Ahmadi-Nejad has placed in virtually every executive position of power in his administration. And into the administration of universities and into key positions inside Iranian banks. Reports indicate that Iran has already successfully modified at least one nose cone, perhaps three, as mentioned above, to deliver a nuclear weapon but appears more likely to set off an underground nuclear test to "impress" the world even more than the regular recent display of weapons so far. However, with Ahmadi-Nejad and his spiritual advisor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi at the helm, the Iranian demonstration could speculatively be dropping a nuclear bomb on Israel and then basking in the Islamic fervor and congratulations this would bring them. They are of the Pol Pot type mentality, not the "saner" old-guard Ayatollahs with whom the world has been dealing - however badly and weakly - which now leads to the "flesh eating bacteria" challenge presented by the neo-Iran administration of Ahmadi-Nejad.

Thursday, April 06, 2006

For short articles go to Latest News Briefs

This Home page intentionally carries only in depth, longer analysis or briefings about Iran. As well as links to three or four specific , horrible videos.
Shorter items and newsy bits are covered in Latest News Briefs, whose link is in the left hand Frame/Column. The Audio/Video and the Graphics (or photos) both "new" sections with links to them also on the left, have some content and will grow as I add to them, so do take a quick look in passing for new items.